Shortfalls of Traditional Techniques 

Traditional schedule analysis includes Critical Path Method (CPM), Monte Carlo, Earned Value Management's Schedule Performance Index (SPI), Percent Complete, Bar Charts. All of the techniques have limitations:

  • Inherently optimistic by a factor of 20% (CPM)
  • Insensitive to float consumption in non-critical areas (CPM)
  • Difficult to set up and operate (Monte Carlo)
  • Not intended to predict project duration (SPI, % Complete, Bar Charts)
  • No scaling of future planned durations based on current performance (SPI, % Complete, Bar Charts)