The Proof
AgileESM© metrics follow from Agile metrics. That proves the validity of AgileESM© for Agile projects. Click here  to see the full proof. An outline of the proof is included below. The variables are defined in the Glossary.

Proof:

• Start with the Agile release date equation
  
• Substitute velocity-based duration terms for the performance term 
  
• Replace the velocity-based duration terms with equivalent Earned Schedule duration terms
   
• Given that the Earned Duration for Earned Schedule (ED_ES) is equivalent to the classic definition of Earned Schedule, i.e.,
  
• substitute as follows
  
• Finally, factor in standard Earned Schedule definitions and apply some nifty algebraic manipuation to get the AgileESM© release date equation
  

To test the theory, the Agile release date equation and the AgileESM© release date equation were used on two projects. In both cases, the Agile and the AgileESM© release date estimates were indistinguishable throughout the projects, empircially confirming the math.