The Proof
AgileESMİ metrics follow from Agile metrics. That proves the validity of AgileESMİ for Agile projects. Click here  to see the full proof. An outline of the proof is included below. The variables are defined in the Glossary.

Proof:

  • Start with the Agile release date equation
    tn_Equation_1_p_jpeg_4.jpg
  • Substitute velocity-based duration terms for the performance term 
    tn_Equation_2_jpeg.jpg
  • Replace the velocity-based duration terms with equivalent Earned Schedule duration terms
     tn_Equation_3_jpeg.jpg
  • Given that the Earned Duration for Earned Schedule (EDES) is equivalent to the classic definition of Earned Schedule, i.e.,
    tn_Equation_5d_jpeg.jpg
  • substitute as follows
    tn_Equation_5_jpeg.jpg
  • Finally, factor in standard Earned Schedule definitions and apply some nifty algebraic manipuation to get the AgileESMİ release date equation
    tn_Equation_6e_jpeg.jpg

To test the theory, the Agile release date equation and the AgileESMİ release date equation were used on two projects. In both cases, the Agile and the AgileESMİ release date estimates were indistinguishable throughout the projects, empircially confirming the math.

Glossary

RDv

Release Date at velocity v

SD

Start Date

L

sprint Length

n

sprint number

APCn

Actual Percent Complete at n

PDv

Planned Duration at velocity v

EDv

Earned Duration at velocity v

PDES

Planned Duration for Earned Schedule

EDES

Earned Duration for Earned Schedule

EVAT

Earned Value at Actual Time

PVi

Planned Value at sprint i

i, j

current sprint, final sprint

ES

Earned Schedule

EACt

Estimate at Completion at t

t, AT

specified time, Actual Time